Okinawa
The Asia-Pacific Journal, Vol. 14, Issue 3, Feb. 2016.

The Ginowan Mayoral  -  Okinawan Currents and Counter-Currents

by Gavan McCormack
with an afterword by C. Douglas Lummis 


Having written recently of the prospect for the three upcoming elections (Ginowan mayor on January 24, Okinawan Prefectural Assembly in June, and Upper House of National Diet in July),1 what follows is a comment on the outcome of the first of these, on which some misconceptions circulate widely.

All-Smiles Abe

The January 2016 Ginowan result must have appeared to Abe a bright New Year omen. In the long drawn out struggle between the national government and the prefecture of Okinawa over the project to reclaim a swathe of Oura Bay and construct there a military complex for the Marine Corps (to which the existing Futenma Marine Corps Air Station in Ginowan City could be transferred), 2014 had been marked by major reverses for the national government – Nago City mayor, prefectural assembly, Governorship, and all four Okinawan seats in the national election. But now the tide was turning. "Team Okinawa," as the association of nine conservative city mayors was sometimes known, had worsted Governor Onaga's "All Okinawa." The Governor himself, and his support base in the Prefectural Assembly and the two major cities of Naha and Nago, faced stepped-up pressure from the electorate.2

On the morning after the Ginowan election, Prime Minister Abe appeared on television beaming from ear to ear. His brief comment said it all: "Yokatta desu ne!" (Good wasn't it!). Later he added that he was "greatly encouraged" by the result and would "continue efforts at dialogue in order to lessen the burden on Okinawa and promote its development."3

One "leading figure in government" expressed the view that, following the electoral triumph, the government was bound to win both in the courts and on the ground at Henoko so it could afford to send appropriate signals to try to win Onaga over.

"The winds have changed since last year and Onaga must adjust his sails accordingly. If he does that, his administration can go on for a long term. Otherwise, the good ship Onaga will just sink."4

Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga Yoshihide gloated at the apparent victory over Okinawan Governor Onaga's "All Okinawa" project, saying that "such a term does not reflect the Okinawan reality, with 9 out of 11 towns and cities not supporting Onaga."5 If they maintained the pressure, he and Abe surely felt, Okinawa's resistance would crumble.  ....

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